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THE KOREAN JOURNAL OF FINANCE ASSOCIATION

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수록정보
수록범위 : 1권0호(1988)~33권1호(2020) |수록논문 수 : 499
재무연구
33권1호(2020년 02월) 수록논문
최근 권호 논문
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1Fund Runs and Market Frictions

저자 : Kyoungwon Seo

발행기관 : 한국재무학회 간행물 : 재무연구 33권 1호 발행 연도 : 2020 페이지 : pp. 1-14 (14 pages)

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We study a simple model in which arbitrageurs trade assets in infinitely repeated stages and a financial crisis may occur due to redemption requests of investors on arbitrageurs. If the asset is undervalued, the arbitrageurs buy the asset to make profits. But the mispricing may become even larger in the next period and the arbitrageurs will take huge losses temporarily. Even though the asset price will recover its fundamental value in the end, the temporary losses of the arbitrageurs can force the arbitrageurs to liquidate the funds due to the redemption requests and stay away from the market in all the subsequent stages. Thus, patience of arbitrageurs (the relative weight to the future profits) affects possibility of a financial crisis. This paper shows two properties on the discount factor. First, a financial crisis without external shocks can arise only when arbitrageurs are impatient, and second, if such a crisis may arise, high patience of arbitrageurs mitigates the crisis but enlarges the pre-crisis mispricing. The model setup mimics the modern financial markets and some of them may be viewed as market frictions which prohibit market efficiency. The simplicity of the model allows a closed-form solution.

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2모호성(Ambiguity) 프리미엄과 기대수익률

저자 : 이유경 ( Yu Kyung Lee ) , 이은정 ( Eun Jung Lee ) , 채준 ( Joon Chae )

발행기관 : 한국재무학회 간행물 : 재무연구 33권 1호 발행 연도 : 2020 페이지 : pp. 15-60 (46 pages)

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본 연구에서는 주식수익률 분포의 모호성에 대한 대리변수로 최근 주식수익률의 확률 분포와 과거 수익률의 확률분포 간의 차이를 비모수적 방법으로 측정하는 Kolmogorov-Smirnov(KS) 통계량과 Kuiper(K) 통계량을 제시한다. 주식수익률의 모호성이 커질수록 이를 싫어하는 투자자들은 이러한 주식에 대해 프리미엄을 요구할 것이고, 따라서 모호성 프리미엄에 따라 기대수익률은 높아질 것이다. 본 연구에서는 국내 주식시장 내에 이러한 모호성 프리미엄이 존재하는지를 밝히고자 한다. 본 논문의 분석결과를 살펴보면, 수익률 분포의 모호성이 큰 주식이 평균적으로 더 높은 수익률을 갖는 것으로 나타났다. 또한, 분포의 불확실성이 가장 큰 포트폴리오(B)를 매수하고 가장 작은 포트폴리오(S)를 매도하는 전략을 구사하여 유의한 양의 위험조정수익률을 얻을 수 있음을 발견하였다. 본 논문의 분석결과는 기존의 이론 연구에서는 주장하고 있으나 실증적으로 밝혀내지 못한 모호성 프리미엄이 한국 주식시장에 존재하는 것으로 해석될 수 있다.


Many theories, experiments, and survey studies suggest that investors are ambiguity-averse, thereby implying the existence of a positive ambiguity premium [Please check whether this revision conveys your intended meaning. If not, please suggest a suitable alternative.]. However, some empirical studies suggest contradictory results. Baltussen, Bekkum, and Grient (2018) use the volatility of implied volatility as a proxy for ambiguity and find a negative correlation between the volatility of implied volatility and expected returns. This negative correlation is inconsistent with the theories of Epstein and Schneider (2008) and Klibanoff, Marinacci, and Mukerji (2005),which state that investors' demand for ambiguity premiums in the stock market depends on their ambiguity avoidance. That is, while most extant theoretical studies on ambiguity suggest a positive correlation between ambiguity and expected returns on stocks, most empirical studies rarely prove this relationship. This study analyzes whether there is a significant correlation between ambiguity and expected stock returns in the Korean stock market and also empirically analyzes whether there exists a positive ambiguity premium. In the financial sector, asset-pricing models such as a capital asset -pricing model (CAPM) are based on various assumptions about the distribution of stock returns. For example, a CAPM assumes that stock returns follow a multivariate normal distribution. Many empirical studies, however, question the type of probability distributions of stock returns (Fama, 1965; Rosenberg, 1974; Tsay, 2010); they suggest that the probability distribution of stock returns does not follow a normal distribution, and are even skeptical about whether such a distribution exists. In particular, Knight (1921) argues that ambiguity is defined as the uncertainty about the location and shape of a probability distribution. Ellsberg (1961) and Camerer and Weber (1992) also note that Knightian uncertainty or ambiguity is generally defined as uncertainty about distribution. Thus, the degree of uncertainty in a distribution is directly related to Knight's (1921) ambiguity definition. If the recent distribution of stock returns unexpectedly differ from those in the past, the investor must pay a higher cost to better understand the difference between the recent and the past probability distribution of returns. Therefore, he/she will require higher premiums to hold these stocks. The main goal of this study is to empirically analyze whether there is a premium for the ambiguity of stock returns at the individual firm-level. To estimate investors' difficulties in understanding distributions of stock returns, this study presents the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) and Kuiper (K) statistics, which measure the difference between the probability distribution of recent stock returns and those of past returns as a proxy for the ambiguity of stock returns. The results show that high-ambiguity stocks in the probability distribution of returns earn, on average, higher returns. An investor who is averse to high-ambiguity stocks demands a premium for that stock, thereby increasing his/her expected returns of the stock. This study examines whether such an ambiguity premium exists in the Korean stock market, and demonstrates that high-ambiguity stocks in return distributions lead to, on average, higher returns. We also find that the difference between the returns for portfolios with the highest and lowest distribution uncertainty is significantly positive. The bottom decile portfolio (S) by KS shows expected average monthly returns of 0.11%, and the top decile, 3.26%. When forming decile portfolios by K, stocks (S) with the least distribution uncertainty provide 0.07% of the expected average monthly average returns, and the stocks (B) with the most distribution uncertainty, 3.22%. In terms of value-weighted average returns, the V-W average returns for portfolios with the most distribution uncertainty are substantially higher. Using Fama and French's (2015) five-factor model, we show that our measures for distribution uncertainty are highly correlated with alphas estimated from five-factor specifications. The magnitude of the alphas is positively related to the level of distribution uncertainty, implying that high distribution uncertainty portfolios earn more positive abnormal returns. The alphas of the B-S spread are significantly positive. As a result, the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) statistic and the Kuiper (K) statistic are correlated with future stock returns. To determine the robustness of the empirical results, we extensively investigate whether the effect of distribution uncertainty persists after controlling for firm characteristics such as beta, size, book-to-market ratio, momentum, short-term reversal, and illiquidity. Overall, the results from these robustness tests using alternative measures of distribution uncertainty still support our hypothesis. Moreover, the results remain significant even after controlling for the characteristics of the distribution of returns, such as intrinsic volatility, skewness, kurtosis, and maximum returns. Next, we examine the cross-sectional relationship between distribution uncertainty and expected stock returns at the firm level using Fama-MacBeth (1973) regressions. The results show a significant correlation between the degree of distribution uncertainty and expected returns even after controlling for a variety of other firm-level variables. Our findings demonstrate the existence of ambiguity premiums in the Korean stock market.

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3투자심리가 횡단면 주식수익률에 미치는 영향

저자 : 이효정 ( Hyo-jeong Lee )

발행기관 : 한국재무학회 간행물 : 재무연구 33권 1호 발행 연도 : 2020 페이지 : pp. 61-95 (35 pages)

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본 연구에서는 Baker and Wurgler(2006, 2007)와 유사한 방식으로 한국 주식시장의 투자심리를 측정할 수 있는 월별 투자심리지수와 투자심리변화 지수를 개발하여, 2000년부터 2017년까지 코스피시장(KSE)에서 투자심리의 변화가 개별주식의 수익률 변화에 미치는 영향을 횡단면적으로 비교 분석했다. 분석결과, 시장가치 대 장부가치 비율이 높은 주식, 고변동성주식, 유형자산이 적고 수익성과 성장성이 낮은 주식이 투자심리변화에 정의 방향으로 민감하게 반응하는 반면, 시장가치 대 장부가치비율이 낮은 주식, 저변동성주식, 유형 자산이 많고 수익성와 성장성이 검증된 주식은 투자심리변화에 민감하게 반응하지 않는 것으로 나타났다. 한편, 일부 가치주, 저변동성 주식은 투자 심리가 좋을 때 주가가 하락하고 나쁠 때 주가가 상승하는 등 투자심리변화와 반대 방향으로 수익률이 움직이는 것으로 나타났다. 이 같은 결과는 주식수익률에 영향을 주는 다른 요인을 통제하고 투자심리변화지수에 대한 민감도 (sentiment beta)를 측정한 회귀분석에서도 동일하게 확인되었다.


Using an investor sentiment index and an index of sentiment changes for the Korean stock market, this study examines how investor sentiment affects a cross-section of stock returns. I examine whether more speculative and harder-to-arbitrage stocks are more sensitive to sentiment, that is, whether their returns co-move more with sentiment changes. I also test whether the returns on extremely unspeculative stocks are negatively related to changes in sentiment, that is, whether they have negative sentiment betas. According to studies on behavioral finance (Shleifer and Summers, 1990; Lee, Shleifer, and Thaler, 1991), because a mispricing is the result of an irrational demand shock in the presence of a binding arbitrage constraint, shifts in investor sentiment have cross-sectional effects when sentiment-based demands or arbitrage limits vary across stocks. Consistent with these predictions, prior empirical studies (Baker and Wurgler, 2006, 2007; Kumar and Lee, 2006) report that more speculative and harder-to-arbitrage stocks―smaller, newer, more volatile, unprofitable, non-dividend paying, distressed or those with extreme growth potential―are more likely to be affected by shifts in investor sentiment. However, the effect of sentiment on the aggregate market is somewhat less clear. Brown and Cliff (2004) show that sentiment has little predictive power for near-term future stock returns, and Schmeling (2009) insist that the effect of sentiment on aggregate stock returns is observed only in the countries that are culturally more prone to herd-like behavior. To reconcile the cross-sectional results and the aggregate results, Baker and Wurgler (2007) suggest one possible explanation known as “the sentiment seesaw,” in that if sentiment fluctuations induce demand shifts between speculative stocks and safe stocks, that is, “the flights to quality within the stock market” occur, the low (high) sentiment reduces (increases) the prices of speculative stocks and at the same time increases (decreases) the prices of safe stocks, resulting in no effect of sentiment on aggregate market returns. In line with this idea, this study analyzes the effect of broad-waved sentiment on a cross-section of stock returns in terms of sensitivity to sentiment. Using financial parlance, I investigate whether more speculative and harder-to- arbitrage stocks have higher sentiment betas, and whether extremely unspeculative and easier-to-arbitrage stocks have negative sentiment betas. As in practice, the same securities that are most sensitive to speculative demands also tend to be the costliest to arbitrage, I hypothesize that stocks most sensitive to investor sentiment are those of companies that are smaller, more volatile, have less tangible assets, are unprofitable, are distressed, and have the potential for extreme growth. At first, I construct the monthly sentiment index and the monthly index of sentiment changes for the Korean stock market based on principal component analysis using five key sentiment proxies: the volatility premium, KSE share turnover, IPO volume, IPO first-day returns, and the proportion of companies with seasonal equity offering. To increase the reliability of the indices and their comparability with international research, I develop these sentiment indices in line with those of Baker and Wurgler (2006, 2007). Using these indices and the monthly returns of all of the common stocks of the KOSPI market from 2000 to 2017, I analyze the effect of the changes in investor sentiment on a cross-section of stock returns. I start by forming equal-weighted decile portfolios based on several firm characteristics such as firm size, MTB, idiosyncratic volatility, total volatility, asset tangibility, profitability, sales growth, and Rand D ratio, and look for patterns in changes in average returns across deciles when the investor sentiment index changes from +1σ to -1σ. I also consider a regression approach that allows controlling for the Fama-French (1993) factors and the Carhart (1997) momentum factor. I regress the returns of each decile portfolio and the returns of various high-minus-low portfolios on the index of sentiment changes, respectively. Consistent with my prediction, I find that the stocks with high MTB ratio, high volatility, low PPE ratio, low profitability, and low sales growth, respond more sensitively to changes in investor sentiment than the stocks with low MTB ratio, low volatility, high PPE ratio, high profitability, and high sales growth. In other words, the more speculative and harder-to-arbitrage stocks have higher sentiment betas. The returns of stocks with extremely low MTB ratios and low volatilities are negatively related to changes in sentiment. That is, most bond-like stocks appear to have slightly negative sentiment betas. These findings are consistent with those of prior studies. As the Korean stock market is an individual-crowded and highly integrated market, it is a good test bed for studying issues related to investor sentiment. Using Korean stock market data, my findings shed light on the effect of investor sentiment on a cross-section of stock returns in theory and can help practitioners establish a profitable investment strategy using investor sentiment.

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4한국시장에서의 주식프리미엄과 무위험이자율 의문현상: 외환위기 이후의 자료를 이용한 재검토

저자 : 김민직 ( Min-jik Kim ) , 조재호 ( Jaeho Cho )

발행기관 : 한국재무학회 간행물 : 재무연구 33권 1호 발행 연도 : 2020 페이지 : pp. 97-144 (48 pages)

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이 논문은 한국시장에서 주식프리미엄 및 무위험이자율에 대한 의문현상 (이하, 의문현상Ⅰ 및 Ⅱ)을 검토한 독고윤, 박종원, 조재호(2001)의 연구를 1997년 외환위기 이후의 자료를 이용하여 재검토한다. 특히, 전에 사용한 시간 부가적 기대효용함수와 Epstein and Zin(1989)의 비기대효용함수 외에도 다섯 종류의 효용함수를 추가하여 새로이 분석을 시도한다. 연구결과는 다음과 같다. 시간 부가적 효용함수 하에서 두 의문현상은 과거보다 뚜렷하게 나타나고, 강건성 점검을 통해서도 이를 확인할 수 있었다. 비기대효용함수 하에서, (ⅰ) 상대적 위험회피계수가 일정한 경우 의문현상Ⅰ은 여전히 남지만 의문현상Ⅱ는 시점간 소비대체 계수의 값에 따라 크게 축소될 여지가 있다; (ⅱ) 절대적 위험회피 계수가 일정한 경우 의문현상Ⅱ뿐 아니라 의문현상Ⅰ도 큰 폭으로 해소될 수 있다; (ⅲ) 모호성회피를 반영하면 전반적으로 도움이 되지만 의문현상Ⅰ에 관한 한 그 유용성은 제한적이다. 외부 소비습관을 반영한 효용함수 하에서는, (ⅰ) 배수형 소비습관을 일인당 현재소비와 같게 놓을 경우 두 의문현상을 동시에 해소하기란 불가능하다; (ⅱ) 일인당 과거소비를 배수형 소비습관으로 설정하면 의문현상Ⅱ를 설명하는 데 상당히 효과적이다; (ⅲ) 부가형 소비습관을 일인당 과거소비와 같게 할 경우 두 의문현상을 동시에 완화할 수 있다.


The puzzle posed originally by Mehra and Prescott (1985) on the asset pricing model of Lucas (1978) consists of two parts: When asset returns predicted by the model are compared with their historical averages, the equity premium is too small and the risk-free rate too large. These phenomena are referred to as the equity premium puzzle (henceforth, Puzzle I) and the risk-free rate puzzle (henceforth, Puzzle II), respectively. Dokko, Park, and Cho (2001: henceforth, DPC) examine these puzzles in the Korean market using annual data from 1975 to 1999, and conclude that while Puzzle I is very weak, Puzzle II is quite strong. In this paper, we re-examine these issues by extending their study in the following three directions: (i) We use quarterly data instead of annual data to enlarge the sample size. (ii) We use the sample data during the 1999-2017 period, considering that a paradigm shift has taken place in the Korean economy after the 1997 “currency crisis.” (iii) Most importantly, besides the time-additive expected utility and the non-expected utility of Epstein and Zin (1989) used in DPC, we adopt five additional utility functions to explore their usefulness in resolving each puzzle. We take two approaches to this study. First, following Kocherlakota (1996), we perform statistical tests directly on the Euler equation that asset returns must satisfy in equilibrium. Second, we apply a calibration method in which closed-form solutions (or their approximations) of asset returns are compared to their historical averages. The results of the two approaches are, by and large, consistent in each of the cases of the seven utility functions that we consider. We make the following observations. In Mehra and Prescott's basic model, the existence of Puzzle I in Korea is now apparent in the acceptable range of the relative risk aversion coefficient (2-6). The main reason for this may be that the equity premium has increased sharply over the last twenty years. Puzzle II is even stronger, as the risk-free interest rate has fallen significantly. These results, contrasted with those of DPC, are confirmed by several robustness check analyses. The non-expected utility function of Epstein and Zin (1989), in which relative risk aversion is constant with γ, makes no difference with respect to Puzzle I as the equity premium is determined independently of intertemporal substitution. However, it can alleviate Puzzle II substantially if the intertemporal substitution parameter ρ is small. Our estimation of ρ using Korean data shows that it is between 0.252 and 0.887. In this range, the risk-free rate predicted by the model is close to its historical average. The nonexpected utility function with constant absolute risk aversion (CARA) has the potential to substantially increase the equity premium significantly. As CARA is translated into increasing relative risk aversion, it makes a high degree of relative risk aversion acceptable. For the same reason, it decreases the risk-free rate further, compared with the preceding utility function. The non-expected utility function exhibiting ambiguity aversion can also be useful in explaining both puzzles. Under certain conditions, the ambiguity aversion parameter ŋ replaces the role of γ in the Epstein and Zin utility function. As ambiguity aversion is, by definition, ŋ > γ, it serves to enhance risk aversion if γ is kept reasonably low, which leads to higher equity premiums and lower risk-free rates. However, given that the empirical magnitude of ŋ is unknown, the usefulness of this utility function is quite restrictive. Merits of the habit formation utility function vary with how habits are specified. A multiplicative external habit model using contemporaneous consumption helps explain Puzzle II, because the pricing kernel in this case becomes unity under log utility (γ = 1). If γ equals one, however, it will weaken Puzzle I. A multiplicative external habit model using lagged consumption weakens Puzzle II substantially, while Puzzle I remains intact. Inherently, it has the effect of magnifying the utility discount factor, which reduces the risk-free rate. An additive external habit model using lagged consumption has a channel to resolve both puzzles simultaneously. A strong consumption habit increases the volatility of the pricing kernel, and also its mean, which raises the equity premium and lowers the risk-free rate. This model, however, has one shortcoming, in that the risk-free rate can easily be negative as the mean of the pricing kernel exceeds one if the consumption habit crosses a certain threshold. In sum, except for the time-additive expected utility, each utility function that we consider can be useful for at least a partial resolution of the two puzzles found in Korea. In particular, the non-expected utility with the CARA model, the ambiguity aversion model, and the additive external habit model have the potential to simultaneously alleviate both puzzles. Among these, the non-expected utility with the CARA model seems to be the most successful, as the explanatory power of the remaining models is rather limited.

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5후순위채권 발행이 은행의 수익성과 부실위험에 미치는 영향

저자 : 유진영 ( Jinyoung Yu ) , 류두진 ( Doojin Ryu )

발행기관 : 한국재무학회 간행물 : 재무연구 33권 1호 발행 연도 : 2020 페이지 : pp. 145-180 (36 pages)

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본 논문은 후순위채권의 발행이 시중은행의 수익성과 부실위험에 미치는 영향을 장기간 자료를 분석하여 연구하였다. 국내 대형 시중은행의 연간자료를 대상으로 패널분석을 실시하였으며, 자본성 증권인 후순위채 발행이 시중은행의 성과에 유의한 영향을 미치는 것을 확인하였다. 후순위채권 증가율과 당기수익성 간에 음의 관계가 존재하며, 이러한 음의 관계가 전기 후순위채 비중이 충분히 클 때를 제외한 모든 경우에 나타나는 것을 발견하였다. 또한, 후순위채권 증가율이 부도거리 Z-score와 음의 관계를 보이고 이에 따라 부실위험을 증가시키는 것을 확인했다. 추가 분석결과, 후순위채권의 증가가 은행의 이자비용을 상승시키며, 이로 인해 수익성과 부실위험에 영향을 주는 것을 확인하였다. 반면, 후순위채권의 발행이 시중은행 성과에 미치는 부정적 효과는 바젤 Ⅲ 자본규제 도입 시기인 2013년 이후로 유의하게 완화되는 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구의 실증분석은 후순위채권의 발행이 시중은행 성과에 영향을 주며, 자본규제 변화가 이러한 관계에 실질적으로 영향을 미침을 입증한다.


This study is the first to thoroughly investigate the effect of subordinated debt issuance on commercial banks' profitability and insolvency risk as well as the effect of the Basel III capital framework on this relationship. This study empirically examines the subject of interest by using random-effects panel- data models after controlling for potential determinants of bank profitability and insolvency risk. The Basel III framework, established by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) and first introduced in 2010, provides reinforced regulatory standards on capital requirements, leverage measurements, and liquidity measurements for the banking sector (BCBS, 2010; Eubanks, 2010; Financial Supervisory Service, 2012). Specifically, the capital framework includes increased minimum capital adequacy ratios, and owing to this, the effect and importance of subordinated debt, a type of debt capital recognized as Tier 2 capital, have changed. However, despite this change in the role of subordinated debt in the banking sector, academic and empirical investigations of this debt are lacking. Our study fills this gap. We analyze the relationship between subordinated debt and banks by using a random-effects panel-data analysis method. Our sample data, ranging from 2001 to 2018, are an annually collected dataset from the six commercial banks that currently operate in the Korean banking sector. We proxy bank profitability using the return on assets (ROA) and the return on equity (ROE), and insolvency risk using the distance-to-insolvency Z-score (Boyd and Graham, 1986; Hannan and Hanweck, 1988). We examine the effect of subordinated debt issuance after controlling for other potential determinants of bank profitability and insolvency risk, including banks' financial ratios, industry- relevant variables, and macroeconomic factors (Athanasoglou et al., 2008). The results of the analyses suggest that subordinated bond issuance negatively affects bank profitability and insolvency risk. The profitability models use either ROA or ROE as the response variable and show that increases in the growth rate of subordinated debt reduce bank profitability. Furthermore, our study considers the interaction between the subordinated debt variable and a dummy variable for Basel III adoption that takes a value of one after 2013, and zero otherwise. We find that the coefficients of the interaction terms are positive for all estimated models, indicating that the negative effect of subordinated debt issuance on bank profitability was substantially mitigated after 2013, when the Basel III accord was first implemented. We also investigate whether the size of previously issued subordinated debt influences the relationship between bank profitability and the issuance of such debt. We measure the relative size of subordinated debt held by a bank as the ratio of subordinated debt to the total debt in period t-1 and sort it into four subgroups based on its quartiles. We find that issuing this debt negatively affects profitability for all subgroups except the subgroup with the largest relative size of subordinated debt, suggesting that banks are not significantly affected by the issuance of additional subordinated debt when they have already issued a sufficiently large amount of subordinated debt relative to their total debt. The Z-score models use the distance-to-insolvency Z-score as the response variable and show that an increase in the growth rate of subordinated debt decreases (increases) the Z-score (insolvency risk). We include the interaction term between subordinated debt issuance and the dummy variable for the adoption of the Basel III regulation in the models. We find that the negative effect of subordinated debt issuance on bank insolvency risk was mitigated after 2013. This finding can be interpreted as resulting from either the enhancement of the integrity of banks' capital structures after the Basel III regulation or the fact that banks are encouraged to only issue subordinated debt that conforms to reinforced regulation. Finally, we analyze the specific mechanism for the relationship between subordinated debt issuance and bank performance. We find that the growth rate of subordinated debt positively affects banks' interest costs, indicating that issuing subordinated debt increases banks' interest costs. We also find that interest costs significantly decrease concurrent profitability and increase concurrent insolvency risk. These results empirically support the hypothesis that subordinated debt issuance incurs costs to banks owing to the relatively high interest rate and can negatively affect bank performance, as prior studies theoretically suggest (Blum, 2002; Kim, 2000). The empirical analyses in this study provide information not only for investors and decision-makers in banks but also for supervisory authorities and policymakers regarding the issuance of subordinated debt. Furthermore, the research methodology used in this study is convenient and practical in that the model uses the financial ratios of banks, industrial variables, and macroeconomic factors that are easily accessible and uses the Z-score as a proxy for bank insolvency risk. Thus, the Z-score can be utilized for insolvency risk analyses in research environments in which the conventional panel logit model is not applicable.

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서울대학교 국민대학교 한국외국어대학교 한양대학교 중앙대학교(서울)
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